Skills - Monte Carlo Simulation | FeverClan - Gaming Community

Skills - Monte Carlo Simulation (1 Viewer)


sparkis

Vetted Officer
Oct 1, 2016
834
Clan Rank
Vetted Officer
Vetted Officer
Hi.

Apologies for not contributing to contributing to play testing but I was curious about optimal play to see if anything stood out or was broken in any way.

Given that I've only just started to look into this and I don't have the time right now to code a simulation program to play out a match automatically, I thought I'd at least look at the relative value of each of the skills for each character.

While there is still more work to be done, I've run a quick Monte Carlo simulation on 3 of the Warrior attack stats Haymaker, Hack & Slash and Shieldbringer. The simulation ran over 100,000 trials so for what it does examine (damage to cost efficiency), it should be reasonbly accurate. The higher the dmg-to-cost ratio, the better.

Weapon Damage5
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)
Haymaker24.009414.405640.620%
Hack & Slash208.75370.437685
Shieldbringer32.023416.01170.560%
Weapon Damage7
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)
Haymaker23.987216.791040.720%
Hack & Slash2012.242580.612129
Shieldbringer32.020219.212120.660%
Weapon Damage10
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)
Haymaker23.97420.37790.8520%
Hack & Slash2017.51310.875655
Shieldbringer32.06524.048750.7560%

The Cost and Damage values are mean values from the simulation and stuns counted as double damage for double cost with the assumption that stuns weren't chained.

Obviously this is rough data but according to this so far, the only thing that can be said with certainty is that different weapon damage values should be testing in playtesting as the weapon's damage can impact what would be the best damage output to resource cost spent.

One other thing that stands out (though albeit with less certainty) is that Shieldbringer seems to almost be a never-use skill as on average you'd be better off with one of the other two skills. Also bear in mind, Shieldbringer doesn't factor in the defense debuff so it could be even worse.

If you find this info useful, I can look to do the same with the other class' attack skills.

Edit: Ranger Skills:

Weapon Damage5
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour Debuff (%)Roll Debuff
Heartseeker20150.7560%
Volley25150.6-5
Disabling Trap38.4416.470.4310%-5
Unleash the Hounds50260.52-5
Weapon Damage7
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour Debuff (%)Roll Debuff
Heartseeker20170.8560%
Volley25170.68-5
Disabling Trap38.5718.730.4910%-5
Unleash the Hounds50280.56-5
Weapon Damage10
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour Debuff (%)Roll Debuff
Heartseeker2020160%
Volley25200.8-5
Disabling Trap38.5222.010.5710%-5
Unleash the Hounds50310.62-5

Assumption: Volley's set low/high effect ignored. Stun counts as double damage with no chain effect.

Virtually zero reason to use any skills other than Heartseeker, unless -5 roll debuff to opponent is significant. If it is, best option would be Volley.
Disabling Trap looks like a never use skill. 18.5 energy for 2 extra damage is terrible value.

Edit: Wizard Skills

Weapon Damagen/a
SkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioHealDefense DebuffDmg ReductionRoll Debuff
Magic Missles3019.000.63
Essense Drain202.010.101.00
Thunderstorm35150.430.36
Realm of Elements55350.6450%-5

Close choice between Magic Missle (MM) or Realm of Elements (RoE) but likely RoE due to additional effects.
Essence drain is utility spell so dmg-cost ratio is unsurpringly low as damage is a secondary effect
Unless defense debuff has significant influence on play, it's a never-pick skill.

Class vs Class Analysis:

Weapon Dmg5
ClassSkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour DebuffDmg ReductionRoll Debuff
WarriorHaymaker24.0114.410.620%
RangerHeartseeker20150.7560%
WizardRealm of Elements55350.640.5-5
Weapon Dmg7
ClassSkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour DebuffDmg ReductionRoll Debuff
WarriorHaymaker23.9916.790.720%
RangerHeartseeker20170.8560%
WizardRealm of Elements55350.640.5-5
Weapon Dmg10
ClassSkillCostDamageDmg-Cost RatioStun (%)Armour DebuffDmg ReductionRoll Debuff
WarriorHack & Slash2017.510.88
RangerHeartseeker2020160%
WizardRealm of Elements55350.640.5-5

When comparing the highest dmg-cost ratio skills from each class i.e. damage efficiency per turn, an initially and albeit rough prediction is:

Ranger > Warrior* > Wizard

* only with weapon damage > 5

As weapon damage does not affect Wizards in terms of their skills, their damage output doesn't scale with the increase in weapon damage from the other classes.

There may also be an issue with class identity regarding the Rangers IF they weapon damage isn't significantly less than the Warrior's weapons. Ranger-type characters are generally expected to defeat their foes through guile and keeping their distance than brute force damage. The dmg-cost ratio shows that the Ranger is always superior to the Warrior given the same weapon damage.

For the Ranger and Warrior to be around the same power level, the Warrior's weapon needs to be around 2-3 damage higher than the Ranger's.
 
Last edited:

BigPun

Vetted Officer
Jan 3, 2013
1,249
One in a mass
Clan Rank
Vetted Officer
Vetted Officer
[MENTION=72598]sparkis[/MENTION] yes please if you can do it!

its very usefull info to us, so just bring it all mention me!
[MENTION=174]Cybernetcrash[/MENTION] [MENTION=34604]Deathopus[/MENTION] [MENTION=40622]PapaRussia[/MENTION]
 

sparkis

Vetted Officer
Oct 1, 2016
834
Clan Rank
Vetted Officer
Vetted Officer
[MENTION=17424]BigPun[/MENTION] [MENTION=174]Cybernetcrash[/MENTION] [MENTION=34604]Deathopus[/MENTION] [MENTION=40622]PapaRussia[/MENTION]

Updated the Monte Carlo simulation test data for all classes to look into damage efficiency i.e. damage-to-resource-cost ratio, including a class vs class analysis.

Naturally, once issues such as how armour works as well as weapon & armour varieties are sorted, more testing and simulations can be done to further examine class and skill balance.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)